There has been a lot of national chatter recently identifying Knoxville as a projected hotspot for relocation activity in 2026. One widely cited forecast from moveBuddah highlights Knoxville as having one of the strongest inbound migration trends in the country, signaling continued interest from buyers considering a move to East Tennessee.
Before looking ahead, it’s helpful to ground the conversation in where the market actually stands today. Below is a snapshot of the Knoxville housing market as of December 2025, followed by what we believe these numbers are signaling for 2026.
Where the Market Stands Today
Inventory remains one of the most important indicators of market health. Across the greater Knoxville area, months of supply sits at approximately 2.5 months, well below the roughly 5 months typically associated with a balanced market. From a supply standpoint, this continues to favor sellers. We did see inventory tick upward to just over 3 Months Supply in October 2025, a trend that will hopefully resume after an expected end of year drop off.
At the same time, pricing momentum has moderated. Median home values across the broader Knoxville area increased only 1.3 percent year over year, a sharp contrast to the roughly 54 percent cumulative increase from spring 2021 through the end of 2023. In some West Knoxville submarkets, appreciation during that earlier period exceeded 90 percent.
Zooming in on 2025
Buyer behavior is also reflecting this shift. Sold listings in December posted a median days on market of 31 days, which is near a five-year high. In plain terms, buyers are being more selective. Even with limited inventory, many are willing to wait for the right home, particularly given that mortgage rates have improved but remain elevated relative to recent history.
The result is a more nuanced market. Homes that are well priced and well presented are still capable of generating strong interest, while properties that are overpriced or have clear functional or condition challenges can linger longer than sellers might expect.
West Knoxville Snapshot - December 2025
Farragut 37934
- Months of inventory: 2.13
- Median days on market: 29
- Median value: 678,840, up 3.7 percent year over year
Hardin Valley 37932
- Months of inventory: 2.30
- Median days on market: 29
- Median value: 527,060, up 1.3 percent year over year
Northshore, Choto, Bluegrass 37922
- Months of inventory: 2.30
- Median days on market: 27
- Median value: 641,740, up 2.4 percent year over year
Rocky Hill, Bearden, Riverbend, Sequoyah Hills 37919
- Months of inventory: 2.13
- Median days on market: 35
- Median value: 538,000, up 0.6 percent year over year
Data Source – Realtors Property Resource as of 1/14/2026
While there are neighborhood-level differences, the broader pattern holds. Inventory remains tight, appreciation has flattened, and buyers are more deliberate.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Based on both the data we’ve reviewed and what we are hearing daily from buyers and sellers, we expect activity to increase in 2026, with the market gradually moving toward a healthier balance rather than returning to the extremes of the past few years. Here are several factors that support this outlook.
- Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates have improved meaningfully over the past twelve months, declining from roughly 7.0 percent to the low-6 percent range. While this may not feel “cheap,” it has been enough to bring many buyers closer to action, particularly those who have been waiting on the sidelines.
- Seller Momentum: At the same time, more sellers appear ready to move. Some homeowners delayed selling during the rate run-up, especially those considering downsizing or a lifestyle change. Improved financing conditions may unlock that pent-up supply, particularly for sellers motivated by timing rather than price alone.
- Strong Employment Opportunities: Knoxville’s employment base also continues to provide stability. Growth tied to the Oak Ridge corridor, advanced energy and nuclear research, healthcare expansion, and the University of Tennessee continues to attract highly skilled professionals. Importantly, local income growth is now projected to outpace home price growth, supporting longer-term affordability and market stability.
- Continued Relocation Interest: Finally, Knoxville remains highly attractive for relocation. Favorable tax policy, access to lakes and mountains, a moderate four-season climate, expanding airport connectivity, and strong schools and amenities continue to draw interest from buyers across the country.
Bottom Line
Knoxville hopefully will avoid another rapid price surge. Instead, the data points to a market moving toward healthier balance, with more listings, more engaged buyers, and greater emphasis on pricing strategy, condition, and location.
For both buyers and sellers, 2026 looks less about speed and more about strategy and alignment.
Thinking About Buying or Selling?
If you’re considering a move in 2026, whether buying, selling, or simply weighing your options, our experienced team at Sold With Sinclair is always happy to be a resource. We’re here to help you understand how these trends apply to your specific goals and situation.
